In the early 1990s, at a time of great uncertainty, a group of committed South Africans representing a wide spectrum of opinions met regularly over a period of several months in a pivotal exercise that helped shape the future of the rainbow nation. The product of that programme became known as the Mont Fleur Scenarios—fascinating and probing stories of how South Africa could develop in the future under different strategies that could be employed by the leaders of the time. South Africa rejected the “Ostrich scenario” that characterised the status quo, and embarked upon “the Flight of the Flamingos”. Ten years after its first non-racial democratic elections, the country has recorded some remarkable successes in guaranteeing freedom and improving the quality of life for millions of its citizens.
But while we celebrate the successes of the past decade, we must also focus on the future. The occasion of the tenth anniversary of freedom was an opportune time to think about where South Africa goes from here and how best to create a desirable future. The scenario process has proven to be an excellent means for a diverse group to share their stories and their logic and their desires of how this wonderful country of ours could develop, and to reach agreement on both desirable and undesirable possible paths to the future. It is for this reason that a follow-up to the Mt Fleur Scenarios was embarked upon by another generation of South Africans in 2003.
The new set of scenarios explores plausible futures for South Africa with an emphasis on the role of leadership. The four scenarios provide key messages on how a desirable future could possibly be created, and identifies the pitfalls that must be avoided (see figures below). In summary, the scenarios are:
DEAD END which explores the possible outcome of self-serving leadership, uncurtailed corruption, and rampant individualism – a disastrous depressing Dead End.
SHARP RIGHT TURN which examines the implications of focusing only on achieving high economic growth.
SLOW PUNCTURE which explores the possible outcome of South Africa choosing to beat the same path rather than adopting a bold vision and decisive leadership to reduce inequalities.
ALL ABOARD THE DUAL CARRIAGEWAY which examines how South Africa as a country chose to challenge its approach to growth and development and chose a bold path to enable all to climb aboard the dual carriageway to a better life.
As always, the scenarios are stories about possible paths to the future, and not predictions. However, they do create a framework for discussion and debate, and it is our hope that, much like the first Mt. Fleur scenarios, the outputs of this exercise will be widely discussed across South Africa, and that it will stimulate a collective reflection on the kind of future South Africans want to build.
The players in this exercise were twenty-three dynamic young leaders from a broad spectrum of ideas, philosophies, and backgrounds in South Africa: potential occupants of the leadership cadre of the nation by 2020. The team was enriched by six young leaders from other regions in Africa for an external African perspective on the issues South Africa may face.
The SA2020 exercise was sponsored by the University of Western Cape. The scenarios were produced under the technical guidance and facilitation of the African Leadership Institute, a trust established to assist in building capacity for strategic and visionary leadership in Africa. UNDP provided the funding for the exercise. The SA2020 report can be obtained from the Institute of Development Studies, University of Western Cape, Cape Town. For more information, contact Peter Wilson (pwilson@alinstitute.org) or Olugbenga Adesida (oadesida@alinstitute.org).
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