• Overview
• Objectives
• Expected Outputs
• Methodology
• Institutional Structure

The project will be led by the youth and will bring together all the stakeholders including the government, civil society and private sector. The aim is to bring Nigerians from different walks of life together to examine, question and challenge conventional wisdom and reach a consensus on what are the future possibilities, what type of a nation should Nigerians aspire to build, how best to make this a reality, and what type of leadership capabilities will be needed and how can the nation build these capabilities.

It is a strategic thinking exercise which will involve the people in the design of the future and challenge them to become active participants in creating the desired future. The results of the exercise will provide the necessary long-term strategic framework which can become a basis for national development management. By making the process participatory and engaging all the stakeholders in the dialogue, the project might ensure that there is a broad consensus on future directions for Nigeria as a nation.

A key aspect of the project will be the emphasis on the youth. It is envisioned that the youth (25 to 40 year olds) will represent about two-thirds of the scenario team. The aim is to depoliticise the exercise and make sure that the focus is on the future. Additionally, it is meant to bring to the fore the group that will hold the mantle of leadership in 2025 and which would normally be excluded in this type of exercise.

The core theme of the exercise is the future. It will focus on designing the future and proposing strategies on how to realize the desired future. As such, key elements of the program will include the identification of the critical strategic issues in the future development of the nation and the forces that could drive those issues to different outcomes; construction of scenarios, development of a shared vision, formulation of strategies, and identification of the leadership capabilities that will be needed to effect Nigeria’s transformation.

• Provide a learning platform for Nigerians who have been identified as potential leaders within their sphere of influence, and who represent a wide cross-section of opinion and background, to debate and jointly explore the issues that will influence the future development of the nation
• Attempt to build a common vision of the Nigeria this varied group of potential leaders would like to inherit in 2025, and their perspective on key leadership strategies (in various spheres of society) that need to be employed to achieve the vision.
• Explore the future from the perspective of the people who will be most directly affected by its outcome, and get them to construct insightful stories of the possible future of the nation, and illustrate how to make their preferred story—the Vision— happen through the formulation of strategies and a strategic agenda for the nation.
• Create frames of reference for further debate in government, civil society, private sector and other forums on the future path and strategies for Nigeria, and produce publications and initial communication media that will facilitate this dialogue.
• Engender a shared perspective of the issues, the choices and potential solutions in the path to the future amongst a high profile group of future leaders who may well be in position in the future to influence the decisions and paths that are taken.
• Establish a programme of dialogue within Nigeria amongst the various stakeholders, employing the scenarios as a catalyst to stimulate structured debate and action.
• Assess the leadership capacity and capabilities that will be required for this next generation of leaders to achieve the shared Vision of the team, highlighting what has to be done to achieve this capacity and capability.

The main project outputs will be a set of four scenarios, a vision statement, strategic agenda, leadership requirements, and a follow up agenda to the Nigeria 2025 exercise. The outputs will be presented in various forms and platforms to engage the nation and all the various segments of society, from the public and private sectors to the civil society and community leaders.

The presentation of the outputs will include a CD-ROM/DVD and publications. The publications will include the main publication and a short popular version. The main publication’s content will largely be written by the participants as part of the scenarios construction and visioning process. The final content of the document will be determined by the Team in discussion with the facilitators and project organizers, but it is likely to contain sections on:

• Overview of the current Situation
• The critical leadership issues of the next 20 years
• Shared Vision of Nigeria 2025
• The Scenarios – alternative paths the nation could take over the next 20 years, with very different outcomes
• Strategies and Strategic Agenda for national transformation
• Key Messages on Leadership Issues
• Assessment of Leadership capacity and skills requirement, and how to achieve these

A short, “popular” version of the document, illustrated with graphics and cartoons as a means to convey important messages will also be prepared. It will present the key messages and conclusions from the exercise. It will be based on the main publication but will require professionals/experts that will help convert the text into visuals and graphics to make the outputs easily accessible to the general public.

The CD-ROM/DVD will contain a documentary style presentation of the scenarios with animation, moving images, dialogue and narration. The aim of this is to bring the outputs to life and make them something people can see and feel. In addition, the CD-ROM/DVD will include a multi-media presentation that will enable the stories and messages to be conveyed to the broader community of stakeholders.

The various forms of outputs will be used by members of the scenarios team in seminars and other events to be organized once the project has been completed to convey to the broader community the outputs of the project and encourage a nationwide dialogue on the future of Nigeria. Various groups and communities including private sector firms, civil society organisations, and schools will be encouraged to organise dialogue on the future of the nation on the basis of the Nigeria 2025 outputs. Moreover, copies will be provided to Nigerian media houses to further help with publicising the outputs. Efforts will be made to show the scenarios on television and to organise debates in print and on radio and television on the themes and issues raised by the scenarios.

The outputs will be distributed widely to representatives of the various constituencies in Nigeria and outside, and create a platform for debate between different age groups and interest groups on the way forward for the nation.

The scenario methodology has been developed over many years of practical application in the public and private sectors. A key example of the use of scenarios within the African continent is the Mont Fleur Scenario project at the beginning of the 1990’s. The Mt Fleur Scenarios was highly successful in enabling a disparate group of potential future leaders of South Africa to jointly explore the future and come to a shared vision of the way forward for the nation. The African Leadership Institute recently concluded a follow-up to this highly successful exercise with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Other similar programmes include the National Long-term Perspectives Studies that were undertaken under the auspices of the UNDP in which scenarios were used as part of designing long-term development strategies in several African countries (see Figure 1.).

Nigeria, today, provides a unique opportunity for reflection on what next. The Nigeria 2025 scenario process will provide an opportunity for a necessary reflection by the next generation of leaders. The methodology will be adapted to the particular circumstances of this project to provide a high quality output, focused on achieving the objectives outlined above.

LEAP Africa, a Nigerian NGO, will serve as the implementing partner and will assist in coordinating the project. LEAP Africa will facilitate the nomination of the scenario team, assist in promoting it with different communities, and provide logistical and administrative support to the running of the project.

The project is designed and will be managed and facilitated by the African Leadership Institute (AfLI), which coordinates a network of Institutions across Africa focused on building leadership capacity and capability in Africa, and runs programs to achieve this goal. AfLI designed the NIGERIA 2025, based on the experience of the SA 2020 project that it recently completed in South Africa, and several other scenario based programmes in other African countries over the last 10 years. AfLI’s faculty will lead and manage the technical aspects of the implementation. Two individuals, highly experienced in visioning, scenario construction will be allocated to manage and facilitate the project.

An Advisory Board consisting of representatives from civil society, government and private sector has been set–up to provide overall guidance for the Nigeria 2025 project. In addition, the board will assist in promoting the Nigeria 2025 project and its outputs in various constituencies, help build legitimacy with the government and other major actors and establish forums for discussion of the outputs and work in progress.

The members of the Advisory Board are: Engr. Mansur Ahmed (Chair), Ms. Morin Desalu (Deputy Chair), Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Mr. Frank Nweke Jr., Dr. Adhiambo Odaga, Mr. Eamon Cassidy, Fr Mathew Kukah, Ms. Ifueko Omogui, Mr. Segun Adeniyi, Prof. Pat Utomi, and Dr. Oby Ezekwesili